Thursday, September 12, 2013

Early Predictions Going into Buffalo Sabres Camp

September 12th marked the official start to the Buffalo Sabres training camp, and also the collective scream of #DoSomethingDarcy in the Western New York hockey market.

As of now, Darcy has done little to satisfy the critics this offseason. He was able to get some veteran leadership for the AHL roster in Rochester in the form of signing F - Matt Ellis and naming him Captain of the Amerks, F - Jaime Tardif, D - Drew Bagnall, and F - Mike Zigomanis.

Regier was also able to lock up some current RFA's, including Brian Flynn, Corey Tropp, Matt Hackett, and Luke Adam among others. At the cusp of camp opening, he was able to sign the most valuable of the RFA's  Cody Hodgson to a multi-year contract. The deal will extend Cody through his first UFA time in 4 years, and keep him a total of six in a Sabres uniform. Barring a trade of course.

There are a lot of bodies in camp to start. You will have the players being sent back to Juniors, or another minor league system. Some players will also be announced to be players for the Rochester Americans early on in camp, and then some that will battle for, and I feel make it, on the NHL roster.

Looking at the starting 20 spots, plus three "press box" spots to round out the 23 man roster, here are some of my thoughts.

As of now, I have 10 of the positions solidly filled by forwards, five by defense, and two goalies, for a total of 17. That leaves six spots for either the starting lineup or the press box to bring us to that 23 man total.

Forwards Solid at the NHL level. Here is the list, in no particular order:
  1.  Thomas Vanek: What is there to say about Vanek? Going into his ninth season with Buffalo, he has 250 career goals which ranks him sixth currently all time for the Sabres. There is no question he is in the running for the Captaincy, as Ron Rolston was quoted as saying he would not shy away from giving the 'C' to a final year player in their deal. He is in a contract year, and I feel big things are coming. He could explode this year to get himself what could be the last contact of his career, long and lucrative.
  2. Steve Ott: Acquired for Derek Roy prior to the lockout shortened season, Ott has solidified himself as a leader if not only for his age and experience in the NHL (31 years old, entering 11th season). We saw last year that the new #9 was not afraid to step up in any role. From being a leader, to an intimidator, he carried the emotion from game to game. Ott is not all defense and annoyance, and could help out with 30-50 points in a full season. He is another candidate for the Captaincy.
  3. Mikhail Grigorenko: Regardless of the 25 games and 5 points last season, I truly believe that this is Grigorenko's rookie season. The 12th overall selection in 2012, was badly misused last season, and my opinion was he should have stayed in Quebec to finish one last full year. Rumor around the NHL was that he was not a good teammate in the locker room, and had a lot of room to grow. Let's hope he grows this season, knowing he has a roster spot already locked up as per Darcy. There is potential for a 1-2 line center for this kid.
  4. Ville Leino: Ville is still here because of his contract, and his health. His disappointing first year with Buffalo was followed up with a nagging couple of injuries that kept him out all but 8 games last season. He scored six points in his limited time, and showed some promise. He is surgically repaired, and is hoping to have a recovery season with Buffalo. With the right line, I could see Ville putting 20 goals and 45-60 points in for a full healthy season.
  5. Tyler Ennis: Tyler is in a contract year, again. He signed a bridge deal last season with the hopes that it would carry him to a long term, lucrative deal. He didn't have a completely disappointing season, however his strong finish to the 2012 season was not followed up in 2013. Tyler scored 10 goals in 47 games, and could not recapture that flash he showed with Foligno and Stafford. He was moved around in an attempt help, but could not find the fire. Ennis could have a big year if healthy, and parlay that into a Cody Hodgson-esque contract.
  6. Drew Stafford: We all know the story with Stafford. Have a good year, get the fat deal from Buffalo, then fall off the scoring sheet. He had 31 goals in 62 games the year he signed that extension in 2011, and in the subsequent 126 game over two seasons, he has a total of 26 goals. Stafford just has to pick it up. His contract is nearly untradeable with the lack of production, so he is here. For now. I do not expect much from Drew, but I do want an improvement to show he is trying to get back to "pre-contract" Drew Stafford. I would like 20 goals minimum from him this season.
  7. Patrick Kaleta: Kaleta is more valuable then people realize. He can be annoying to the opposition, as well as his own coaching staff on the same play. He is a marked man in the NHL with multiple suspensions over the last few seasons. Pat is a checking forward, and nothing more. Invaluable on the penalty kill, Kaleta is also injury prone in the hands. His shot blocking is top notch, but he needs to stop trying to catch the puck with his hands. No doubt he makes the big club as a role player/fourth liner.
  8. Marcus Foligno: Foligno finished his rookie season in 2012 with a boom. Marcus finished that campaign with 13 points in 14 games on the Ennis and Stafford line. His 2013 season carried much expectation, and the production never came. It was attempted by Ron Rolston late in the season to move Marcus around from wing to center. He looked more comfortable, but it will be interesting to see where he is used. Early in camp this year, he was placed on a line with Vanek and Hodgson. If that sticks, there will be no excuse for production issues as compared to opportunities.
  9. Cody Hodgson: Well...with the new contract..he has a lot to prove. He could be a first line center, or not. We honestly do not know. Cody has not really proven anything in Buffalo yet, other then he had some chemistry with Pomminville and Vanek to start the season. That quickly faded away, and there were some occasions where Cody was placed on the fourth line as punishment for defensive zone breakdowns. 25 million is a lot to give a 3rd year pro, but your paying for the potential with this signing. Here is hoping for 65-80 points from Cody.
  10. John Scott: Scott is not a top 12 forward, however when It comes to those nights playing division rival Montreal for example (Ryan White, George Parros, Brandon Prust, and Douglas Murray), those are the nights he will be in there. He has no offensive prowess, and is here to protect and serve. He will be on the final 23 man roster, at minimum.
On The Bubble at Forward, 2-3 positions:
  • Brian Flynn: Came up from Rochester last season, and showed a lot of heart. On the smaller side, he is not known as a physical presence, but is not afraid to take the body. He impressed last season, playing in over half of the Sabres contests. He netted 6 goals and 11 points total. From a third and fourth line position, that is not bad. I think Flynn has a very good chance to break the lineup, but there are many skilled forwards in camp to contend with.
  • Zemgus Girgensons: After a slow start, and a concussion in Rochester last year, Zemgus turned up the heat in the playoffs for the Americans. He was by far their best skater, and was all over the ice hitting, shooting from all angles, and scoring some improbable goals. He was a boy among men, playing at the professional level at 18, the youngest the AHL will allow you to play if you have not committed to juniors. Zemgus is a favorite of mine to make the big squad, if he continues his progress in camp and pre season. Some reviews I have read of the 2013 Traverse City tournament, he was their best all around skater.
  • Johan Larsson: The biggest piece in the Pomminville trade with Minnesota in my opinion (With Nikita Zadorov's development withstanding), he was a second round pick of the Wild back in 2010. He has been successful at all levels, and was just called up to the NHL level at the time of the trade last year by the Wild. Larsson was a top prospect in the Minny system, and Buffalo should have high hopes he can be a top center for them long term. With the need at center, Larsson has a real chance to stay at the NHL level if he can dominate in camp and the pre season. If not, he will be a welcome addition for a full year at the AHL level.
  • Kevin Porter: Porter is a dark horse in all of this. He started last season as the Captain of the Rochester Americans, and was called up when the injury bug bit the Sabres. He quickly fit in, and showed how valuable he could be to a team in need of some leadership. He was able to put in four goals and nine points in 31 games. Porter may get a shot at the NHL level to start, unless the young guns impress and outplay him early on. With the limit on veterans in the AHL per team, Porter may be an odd man out.
  • Joel Armia: One of the most anticipated players to see in a Sabres uniform, Armia has finally fulfilled his military commitment to the motherland, and can play North American hockey. He has been playing with adults over in Europe for 3 years, so playing at the professional level here in the NHL or AHL should not come difficultly. He has averaged around 30 points a season in a 45-55 game average. He is big, and can score. My hope is he earns a spot and that transfers to the NHL style of play. Rinks are smaller here, and he should be able to take that to his advantage.
  • Corey Tropp: Probably the most intriguing, is Tropp. After starting his NHL career with a bang in 2012 beating the tar out of Zac Rinaldo and proving he could hit and score some goals, he started last season in the AHL due to the lockout. He came out of the gate flying, scoring two goals in the season opener only to be struck on the knee tearing ligaments and ending his season essentially. He did attempt a comeback late in the season, however the fatigue was evident. He was on the roster for the Sabres for sure going into last year, however due to his injury, he will have to work hard to show he belongs with the big club again.
  • Cody McCormick: Cody finished last season with the Rochester American's after clearing waivers. He was a consummate professional, and took his lumps and played hard every night he was in the lineup. He could make the Sabres roster early on just like last year, until one of the above youngsters gets some seasoning down in Rochester. One thing is for sure, whether Cody is at the NHL or AHL level, he will play his heart out for you.
Defensemen Solid at the NHL level, in no particular order:
  1. Mike Weber: Had his strongest season as a pro, and really came into his own after being a healthy scratch, and being an afterthought at the beginning of the 2012-13 season. His hard work and dedication to his position and team, earned him a 5mill extension from Buffalo. I foresee big things from Weber, and possibly a top 4 spot.
  2. Christian Ehrhoff : A mainstay on the blue line for Buffalo since signing here when healthy, Ehrhoff is a staple on the power play, and a minutes eater. When he is healthy, he is a fluid skater with good puck possession, and can contribute on the offensive side of things. Not strong on the defensive side, yet manageable.
  3. Henrik Tallinder: Hank is back. He signed with New Jersey after playing 8 seasons with Buffalo. His last two years with the Devils were riddled with injuries, and Buffalo decided to take a flyer on the guy. Speculation was that Tallinder was brought back in to 'fix a broken Tyler Myers'. Even so, we have seen in the NHL that having a plethora of veteran d-men is valuable both in season, and at the trade deadline. I see Rolston giving Hank a chance to crack the top 6.
  4. Tyler Myers: Which Tyler Myers will show up this year? The one that dominated the blue line for the Sabres his first season and a half, or the one the last 2 and a half seasons? Myers has been lost in so many ways lately, some people are thinking that Buffalo may have jumped the gun in giving him the long term contract. What they need from Myers is a return to dominance. A reclamation of that top pairing spot that he earned after his rookie season. Having Tallinder here may help, or that may not matter at all. He needs to step up, and be here both mentally and physically.
  5. Jaime McBain: Acquired in the trade with Carolina for Sekera,  McBain is still young at 25, and has had some productive years in regards to points for the Hurricanes. At this point, with his physical play and size, I see McBain making the 23 man roster. He could crack the top 6 if he comes into camp in shape and gives an all out effort.
On the Bubble at defense:

  • Mark Pysyk: Why do I have him here you ask? Well, the blue line is full this year. This is a good problem to have, and even thought Mark played significant time in the NHL last year and looked good, he will have to earn that spot. He played 19 games, and was thrust into an every night role once injuries and trades went down. He is a smaller defenseman, and I see him as an offensive threat and power play guy along the lines of Ehrhoff. If he has a strong camp, I see him having chance to stay with the Sabres. There are a lot of experienced blue liners to compete with.
  • Alexander Sulzer: An obvious choice here with his experience and chemistry with Ehrhoff, he was on his way to a career year when it was ended abruptly by a serious knee injury. I liked this signing at the time, as it showed a belief that Sulzer was making progress in the system, and scoring points from the back end. Production from the blue line is important. I see Sulzer as a rotation in guy, to give a rest or to cover for an injury. Good chance he makes the NHL roster of 23.
  • Brayden McNabb: Once full of promise, he appears to be the lost man in all of this. When he was called up in 2012, he started with a bang, literally. His open ice hits were perfect, and he dropped the gloves as well showing that he could take it just as much as dishing out. McNabb suffered a knee injury last season in Rochester which caused a set back in his development. Everyone in the Sabres organization thinks very highly of Brayden, but with the log jam at defense, I see him in Rochester to start, and even a piece in a trade to be dangled.
  • Rasmus Ristolainen: Eighth overall in this years draft, I want this kid to make the NHL squad bad. He has the size, the talent, and has also being playing with adults in Europe so he is more advanced then some prospects. He was impressive in rookie camp, as well as the Traverse City tournament. The Sabres were so high on this kid at the draft, they were jumping for joy when he slipped to the eight spot. He could push any of the above bubble d-men, and that is good. Competition for a job will make everyone better, at least that is the hope. If not, I am sure Chad Cassidy will not mind having him in Rochester to start the season.
Goaltending:
  1. Ryan Miller: No questions here. As long as he is in Buffalo, and on the roster, there is no way he is not the #1 goalie. He has set numerous franchise milestones in the last couple of seasons, and is a UFA at the end of this season. I think the way his play pans out, will have a huge effect if the Sabres want to give him another long term contract to finish his career as a Sabre. Of course, that is if Ryan would like to finish his career here and possibly not win a cup before he retires. A decision on his status needs to be made before the end of the calendar year in my opinion. Sign him, or work a trade out for him.
  2. Jhonas Enroth: No question Enroth is the backup. I see Rolston playing him more this season, in order to see what he is really all about. There is a lot of depth in the organization at goalie, and Jhonas is the smallest of the group. The NHL does not have too many little guys in net, so eyes will be peeled when evaluating him this year and next. He may be a #1 goalie in the future, but will it be with Buffalo?
Ok...I think I am done. Whatever happens, this team with at the minimum be competitive internally. As I said above, competition is good. It makes players want to win, earn a spot, and make their mark on the NHL. Case in point, it should also provide a great roster in the AHL for the Rochester Americans once all the above shakes out. Entertaining hockey appears to be on its way East from Buffalo, one way or another.

Go Sabres.